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The Maverick Guide to Internet Texas Holdem
Texas Holdem - The Rolls Royce of Poker games.It takes a minute to learn and a lifetime to master
Issue 2
Welcome to the third issue of the Maverick Guide to Internet Texas Holdem.
This regular newsletter keeps you up to date with the very latest news and events from Get Minted Poker and over time provides advice on basic strategy for Internet Texas Holdem for beginners through to intermediate players.
This issue will continue to look at starting hands for Texas Holdem giving some more detail on the trash hands and why they are trash and also look at those hands that are able to win a very big pot when you hit them. I will then review the concepts of full on bluffing and semi-bluffing.
1.0 TRAP HANDS
These are acknowledged to be the "trouble hands" - those hands that people play that either win a very small pot or more likely lose a large pot. In addition they are often difficult to put down when you make something with them even though you know you are likely to be beat
These hands are not considered to be trouble if they are suited and they are strong hands when 4 or less players are playing the game (and not just 4 left in this round)
AQ, AJ, AT (not suited)
The problem with these hands is that they are easily dominated hands. If you played these hands and ended up competing against someone with AA or AK then you have very limited winning outs. In this situation you can only win by hitting your lower kicker of which there only 3 cards left in the deck. If the flop comes A62 are you happy with that or not?. You may think you have a strong holding with a reasonable kicker but the chance of being dominated by a better kicker is high. This is even before you start worrying about other players that may be drawing to a straight or flush or already have hit 2 pair.
The situation is worsened by the fact that you can also be dominated by a player that has a big pair. AQ against QQ is a dangerous hand. If you have a flop like Q82 you will think that you have a good hand whereas your only out is hitting both the remaining aces. You can see how you could easily lose a large pot with this hand.
KQ, KJ, KT(not suited)
These hands are dominated by AK and KK as well as the problem of the big pairs such as QQ, JJ and TT. In addition if you do catch a pair on the flop and an ace then comes on the turn what do you do. You lose all the strength in your betting and have to either represent a stronger holding than you have (such as AK) and bet out what could easily be a losing hand or slow down and make a weaker bet or check which will alert your opponents to your problem leaving you exposed to a larger bet or raise. All in all you are not in a strong position but you have committed funds to the pot and have a piece of it making it more difficult to fold your hand. It's easy to see how players lose a lot of money playing these hands.
Readers may argue that there is straight potential with all these hands as they are connected or at most 1 or 2 cards apart. However these straights are quite often dominated by higher straights. An example would be you have KQ and the flop comes QJT giving you an open ended straight draw. However someone with AK has already got a made hand and it is also likely that someone has a set or maybe two pair. At this point players will trap you (if they have a made straight) or bet the flop hard to stop any drawing hands having the chance to make the draw. Again you are in trouble. On the turn if a King hits and you have two pair you are exposed to anyone with an ace that now has their straight made. If a Jack or Ten hits and you have two pair the board is now paired leaving a Full House problem. Your only chance is a 9 which is not many outs and hope that no one is holding AK.
QJ, QT, JT, 98 (not suited)
These hands suffer from the same problems as those described in the above section although the problems are increased by any A or K hitting the board or Q in the case of JT. 98 is a weak holding unless it is suited (in which case you need 4-5 callers to make it worth being in the pot). The problems with 98 are many. Straights can be dominated from above and the chance of scare cards when you have only hit top pair are many as any picture will make you nervous. You need a miracle flop like 982 to be feeling happy but then you are not going to get much action from any of the other players unless they are on straight draws in which case you could be in trouble. If the flop comes Q98 you have top pair but someone could have a made straight (if they played JT) or an inside straight draw and overcard with AT or AJ. Even when you have the board to your liking there are significant chances that you could still be beat.
2.0 TRASH HANDS
If you follow the advice that we gave in Issue 2 of the Maverick Guide you will not find yourself playing any of the hands that we discuss here. They don't fall into any of the categories of recommended starting hands. However players do get tempted to play lots of other types of hands which look like they could give something interesting. By highlighting these you will know why you should not be tempted. Players that get frustrated or have had a couple of bad hands tend to start to play below their best and these hands get looked at.
One of the biggest beginner mistakes is to think that any hand is playable pre-flop. "you just don't know what could come up on the flop". Whilst there is an element of truth in this you need to hit a miracle flop to get a hand that is playable with 72 for instance and the chances of this are so slim as to not be worth the cost of a bet to see the flop. What is more likely to happen is you get a small piece of the flop and then get committed to betting a hand that is almost always going to lose.
2.1 The dominated hand
The dominated hand is one of the most dangerous hands to have in Holdem. If you have J9 and your opponent has JT unless you hit a straight that your opponent cannot make you have only 3 cards that will make your hand beat your opponent, the other 3 nines. If you hit top pair you may feel confident that you have the best hand on the flop but what happens when a King comes on the turn. Playing hands at the top end of the board such as KQ will run into serious trouble when you come up against AK or KK, both of which are premium hands that everyone will play if they have them.
If you play hands like K9 or K4 or similar high cards with a weak kicker you will find yourself outgunned consistently by players showing down KQ or KJ. Your only hope is to catch two pair but the odds do not justify the bet in the first place and the action you may get from other players is likely to be limited.
2.2 Weak Connectors
"Connected cards" that have a gap of 2 or 3 cards are weak hands and should not be played. The number of straights that can be made is reduced significantly compared to no gap or 1 gap connectors. If you do hit the board with a straight draw it is often an inside straight draw which has only 4 possible outs. The opponents will be suspicious of any significant bets and are less likely to have something made themselves which reduces the betting and the potential size of the pot.
An example would be 85 or 84 would be examples of trash hands that are just not worth the effort. If the flop is A76 you will likely be pushed out of the pot by someone protecting their pair of aces and your odds of hitting the draw are only 5-1. If the next card is a 9 you have hit your straight but may be beaten by a holding of T8 (which is only 1 card apart). 84 is worse as you need the board to read 765 to make your straight which would like scare away any opponents that were still in the pot when you try to bet out your cards. Again it is possible to win pots with these hands. The problem is that the odds of hitting them do not justify the bets in the first place and the pots that you win are small. What you are looking for in Holdem is the opposite. Hands that cost little compared to the odds of success and preferable ones that lend themselves to winning big pots. 2.3 Small pairs
By small pairs I am referring to pairs starting with 88 and going on down to 22. These hands are very difficult to play with any authority unless you are against a lone opponent or unless you catch a set on the flop. My advice is to play these hands if there are lots of players in the pot and you can get in cheaply and fold the hand if you miss the set on the flop.
If you are playing heads up with an opponent and you have 22 you have only a 50% chance of beating that opponent by the river. Players going all in on this hand heads up are pretty much gambling with the same odds as putting their money on red at roulette. The odds improve up towards 65% if you have 88. This is still only 2-1 odds in your favour which means you can be outdrawn by your heads up opponent a lot more than you might think but you are still a favourite to win the hand.
2.4 Low end connectors
The low end connectors are very difficult to play. Cards such as 54o that catch a straight are usually at the "ignorant" end of the straight and will find that they are often dominated by someone who has hit the top end of the straight. Even playing these cards suited is dangerous as you will have a very weak flush that is prone to being dominated. 2.5 Random suited cards
I define these as two random cards of the same suit and not falling into the other categories. Cards such as T6 hearts or Q4 diamonds are classic examples. The chances of hitting a flush draw with these cards is down at just above 5%. Even if you hit your flush you are very likely to lose to a higher flush. It makes much more sense to get your money into a hand where you have a much better chance of winning when you hit your draw. 2.6 Plain trash
Defined as any two random cards that do not fall into the other categories. Offsuit cards such as 84o, 72o (the worst starting hand in Holdem), T3o etc. The only chance you have for winning with these is a flop where you manage to get two pairs. If the board pairs up and you match withone of your cards for 3 of a kind you have a chance but you are very likely to have kicker problems. Regularly playing these types of hands will cause you to lose your money fast. 3.0 BLUFFING
If you regularly win at poker one of the most asked questions that you will get asked is "how often did you bluff" and bluffing is one of the things that makes poker such an interesting game to play. But what is a bluff?. Many define it as a bet or raise when you have very little or no chance of winning a show down with your hand (a Pure Bluff or Full Bluff). But there are many more subtleties to bluffing especially in Hold'em which is a draw card game. If you have an inside straight draw and you bet at it are you bluffing or not? 3.1 Full bluff
Lets start with the easiest one first. The Full Bluff, a bet or a raise where you have little or no chance of having the best hand now or after the turn or the river. In making this bluff you are hoping that your opponents all fold their hands as you do not want to see another card or get to a showdown. Before making this bluff you need to consider some of the following:
- Number of opponents that you are facing is critical to the success of your bluff succeeding. If you have only 1or 2 opponents then you have a chance of it succeeding. If there are more there is very little chance of everyone folding their hand unless you have made a very large bet (which is highly risky) that scares all the opponents away. For obvious reasons this can only be done in no limit games.
- Strength of your opponents. As a general rule strong opponents are more likely to fold a hand than weaker opponents who tend to call if they have a hand regardless.
- The type of game. If you are playing limit poker then the cost of players having to call the bluff is relatively low. In no limit they could be having to expose their entire chips to calling your bluff.
- Size of the pot. If there is a big pot then your chances of bluffing it away from your opponents are reduced.
- Your image. If you are seen as a loose player that bluffs a lot then players are more likely to try and "keep you honest" by calling your hands. If you play a tight game then you are more likely to be able to get away with a small number of bluffs as your opponents expect you to have a strong hand if you are playing the pot.
- A Scary board. When the board is 3 to a straight or a flush (say 567 or K96 all clubs) then players will be nervous that someone has already made a strong hand. If you represent that hand by making a good bet or raise then players are more likely to fold (and good ones definitely will unless they actually have the hand you are representing).
- Position. It is possible to use your position to good advantage. If you are last to play and no one has shown any strength you can launch a significant bet to push everyone else out of the pot. Don't try with more than 2 opponents though. The other common opportunity arises when you are on the button and all the players in front of you have folded leaving just the two blinds remaining. If you launch a raise at them you have the chance that both of them will fold. Be warned though, if you try this too often you will players start defending their blinds and you will have to cope with taunts of thieving and general nasty play.
- Later Betting rounds. It is generally harder to launch a successful bluff on the river. For a start to get there you will have likely been already bluffing or semi-bluffing (at a draw say) that has been called and so why would an opponent not call you at the river. In addition the size of the pot is now usually quite large and so players are less inclined to let it go. The only time later betting bluffs have a chance is when the pot is small usually as a result of the flop and river being checked through.
- In the blinds. Players in the blinds tend to play all sorts of hands including hands that have two low(ish) cards in them. This gives a great opportunity to bluff at the flop if it comes down all rags. To do this effectively you need to bet out. If you try a check raise most players will follow you once they have already bet (on your original check).
- Following a raise. There is a saying that the pot belongs to the person that raised it first (or re-raised it) and this is because a raiser will usually follow a pre-flop raise with a bet whether he hits the flop or not. In this way the other players do not know if he hit his hand or not and are more likely to throw weaker hands (such as middle or bottom pair).
That is not to say that bluffing does not happen in low limit games. There will be lots of players who still try bluffing at this level. Just make sure it is not you and you won't waste valuable chunks of your stack on a strategy that is set to lose.
3.2 The Semi bluff
The semi-bluff is where the majority of bluffing action takes place in a Hold'em poker game. It is rare for players to use all out bluffs unless they are dominating a game where all the players are playing exceptionally tight or in a short handed game.
A semi-bluff is a bet or raise on a hand that if called is likely to not be the best hand but still has outs that will make it the best hand ie it is a potential drawing hand. When you make a semi-bluff you are hoping that you win the pot right there but if it is called you have the chance of a big pot win if you hit one of your outs. It is the combination of these two chances of picking up the pot that makes a semi-bluff a profitable play and a great weapon in your armour. It also adds significantly to the deception of your play as opponents won't know if you have a made hand or a drawing hand when you make a big bet as you will be betting them in a similar way. Either way they need a very big hand to call you.
An example of a semi bluff is if you hold TJ and the board is A97 giving you a gut-shot straight draw with 2 cards to come. This has 4 outs of hitting the straight which is odds of 11-2 across the next two cards or 11-1 on the turn. Now if the pot is £50 and you are planning to bet £50 at it as a semi-bluff you have pot odds of 1-1 on an 11-1 shot for the next card. To make this a profitable play you would need your opponent to fold his hand more than 46% of the time. This compares to a full bluff where you would need your opponent to fold their hand more than 50% of the time. So in this instance there is not much difference between the pure bluff and the semi bluff. (for those that want to see the maths see appendix A).
Things improve as the number of outs that you have increase. If you have the nut flush draw the odds of hitting that flush are 4-1 or 19% on the next card. By making a pot size bet you are increasing your chances of winning as long as you think your opponent will fold 38% of the time. But things are even better than this. With a flush draw you have over a 40% chance of hitting the flush by the river so when you add the chances that your opponent would fold you have a better than 50% chance of winning the hand. Depending on the opponent this is a classic time to move all your chips in. He will probably fold but if he calls there is a massive pot where you are still favourite to win.
Once again I would point out the semi-bluffing is not a tactic that is particularly useful in low limit games. The examples I have given above are pot limit of no limit semi-bluffing tactics (because of the need to make a significant bet). In low limits the amount you can bet is unlikely to throw an opponent(s) off the scent and players tend to call most hands and raised anyway. Therefore the % chance of them (all) folding is close to zero and you lose the probability advantage of that part of the bet.
3.3 Bluffing and Internet play
As a general rule players tend to bluff more often online that in a face to face game. This is mainly due to the fact that there is no need to keep a poker face, the number of tells are lower and it is easier to raise with the click of a mouse rather than physically move in your chips on a real play table.
So what does this mean for the internet player:
- Your opponents are likely to be bluffing more often than otherwise. If this is a low limit game this is good news for the reasons described earlier. If it's a no-limit game then you are against an opponent that is tricky to play and you have to be careful that you do not get involved in a hand where you are only going to come off the worst.
- You should call your opponents more often than you would in a real game. This is known as "keeping them honest" in the game.
- Opponents (whether limit of no-limit) will tend to call your bluffs more often online than offline. This is because either they don't understand advanced plays (such as representing a hand) or they are playing lower limit games where calling can be the right play even with a hand that is behind.
Much is written about the "advertising" value of bluffing. Many writers go so far as suggesting that in any game you should allocate a proportion of your chips to advertising bluffs so that you get more action when you have a good hand.
There is an element of truth in the fact that mixing your game up to confuse your opponents and disguise when you have a good hand is a sensible play. The question is whether you want to waste good money playing hands that are always going to lose so that you get the benefits of the good hands you want to play.
My advice (which differs from many) is that you are better mixing up your game in other ways than just giving away a proportion of your chips on full bluffs. Particularly online many players won't even notice your advertising so the benefits are reduced. If you focus on semi-bluffs as the means to mixing up your play along with check raising, slow playing and other techniques discussed in issue 4 you will be very difficult to read and on your way to consistently winning on the tables.
Appendix A - Semi bluff of pot size bet on a gut-shot straight draw for a single card
X=% of the time that your opponent(s) will ALL fold their hands on your semi-bluff bet.
The maths assume a pot size bet of £50 (so into a pot of £50)
- You will win £50 X% of the time when all your opponents fold
- Of the times your opponents don't fold (1-X%) you will win £50 8% of the time and will lose £50 92% of the time.
50x + (50*0.08*(1-x)) - (50*0.92*(1-x)) = 0
50x + (4-4x) - (46-46x) = 0
50x + 4 - 4x -46 + 46x = 0
92x = 42
therefore x = 42/92 = 46%
The astute reader will notice that the calculation does not take into account the implied odds - that is the extra bets that you think you will win if you have hit your card. If you think you may be able to win an extra £100 on the turn if you hit your card then the percentage reduces to
50x + (100*0.08*(1-x))- (50*0.92*(1-x)) = 0
50x + 8 - 8x - 46 + 46x = 0
88x = 38
x = 43%
Appendix B - Semi bluff of pot size bet on a flush draw for a single card.
The odds of hitting a flush on the turn are 9 cards out of 47 which is 19% chance.
- You will win £50 X% of the time when all your opponents fold
- Of the times your opponents don't fold (1-X%) you will win £50 19% of the time and will lose £50 81% of the time.
50x + 9.50 - 9.50x - 40.5 + 40.5x = 0
81x = 31
x = 38%
So if you think your bluff will make them fold more than 38% of the time bluffing is the profitable bet.